The 10 year treasury yield is at the high end of a downward sloping channel dating back to 1987. As investors sell treasuries, yields (which move in the opposite direction of bond prices) could move above the key level of 2.64%, pushing up yields for the $8 trillion U.S. corporate bond market, the $4 trillion […]
Manufacturing Strength The ISM (Institute of Supply Management) New Orders Index, which measures US manufacturing, jumped in December. The index strengthened to 69.4 from 64.0, significantly better than expected. This is a positive sign for the economy. The U.S. manufacturing sector employs 12.5 million people and generates output of $2.2 trillion a year. That makes […]
Optimism Hits 30 Year High The Small Business Optimism Index rose in November to 107.5. That is the highest level since 1983, and the second highest since 1974. Optimism is rising in tandem with expectations that the Tax Reform bill will pass. Not only do Small Businesses employ 50% of the American workforce but they […]
Source: Bloomberg (AAA Muni/Treasury ratios, 2017 YTD) In mid-November, federal tax reform efforts threatened to curtail certain types of municipal bonds, which has incentivized affected issuers to rush to market with new bonds before year-end. This unexpected surge in supply initially led to an across-the-curve muni selloff as muni/Treasury ratios sharply rose (increasing ratios indicate […]
“The debate over who in the financial services industry should be required to act as a fiduciary has been getting more intense…” Stuart Riemer “7 Best Practices For Wealth-Managing Fiduciaries…” written by our colleague, Stuart Riemer, appeared recently in Law360. Law360 is an online forum dedicated to providing a platform for news as well as analytical […]
(Source: Bloomberg) Mr Consumer – High Confidence The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index again surprised to the upside, hitting a 17 year high. Consumer Confidence has peaked on average a full year before the start of the past three economic recessions.
As active portfolio managers, we’re constantly monitoring the latest economic trends and how they affect our investment outlook. Changes in the trajectories of inflation, consumer confidence, employment, and other factors often impact entire sectors and asset classes. Today, the public has access to more detailed and frequent economic data than ever before. However, while often […]
Source: Bloomberg Stocks for the Long Term The total return of the S&P 500 since the end of 1980 is +4,733%, or +11% per year on average. While hindsight is 20/20, remember that there was no shortage of negative sentiment in the past. These impressive gains are in spite of 1987’s Black Monday crash, the […]
How Low Can It Go? The unemployment rate has been below the current 4.1% only 11 total months since 1970 or only 2% of the time. It is becoming increasingly difficult to argue that the economy is not at or close to full employment. Wage inflation monitoring is becoming increasingly important. Source: Bloomberg
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about the authors
began his career in the financial services industry in 1997 with AIG International. He has been associated with David D’Amico and Steven Feit since 1998, and joined Richard Saperstein at CIBC Oppenheimer in 2002.
Mr. Jones is Treasury Partners’ Senior Portfolio Manager and a member of the Portfolio Management Group. He implements and maintains our fixed income investment portfolios, and invests considerable time communicating with “the Street” and assessing developments within both the bond market and broader financial markets.
began his career in the financial services industry in 2002 with General Electric Asset Management, and was a fixed income corporate research analyst prior to joining Treasury Partners in 2009.
He is a member of our Portfolio Management Group. His responsibilities include performing top-down, macro due diligence and developing investment strategies across fixed income, equity, and ETF markets.
joined Treasury Partners in May 2015 as a municipal analyst with our Portfolio Management Group. He previously was a senior analyst with Public Financial Management, a financial advisor to state and local governments and other public sector institutions.
He analyzes municipal issuers' outstanding debt, and performs related quantitative analytics with the objective of identifying high quality credits with competitive pricing and yields.
began his career in 2008 with J.P. Morgan and joined Treasury Partners in 2009. He is a member of our Portfolio Management Group with primary responsibilities in the areas of portfolio analytics, research and reporting, investment due diligence, and third party manager analysis.
Mr. Saad conducts ongoing evaluations of the equity and fixed income portfolios strategies we manage internally, and monitors the investment managers we engage to run selected equity, fixed income, and alternative strategies.